By Teklu Abate; March 23, 2013
During the last two decades, Tigray has occupied the minds of Ethiopians. That EPRDF’s (the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Party) creator, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), is native to Tigray explains all the discourses. Ordinary conversations, media reports, and developments on the ground all seem to testify that Tigray is being preferentially and positively treated in all fronts.
It is known that TPLFities
dominate Federal government offices including the military and security
apparatuses. It is public discourse that people from Tigray take a significant
number of scholarships being offered by top western universities. Compared to
the other regional governments, Tigray presumably outachieves in nearly all
economic indicators and measures. In a way, Tigray
is said to be the ‘pampered child’ of the ruling party.
The question is: to what extent these assertions hold water? That TPLFities have a grip on power is never contentious. Elusive and less grounded was the argument related to Tigray’s overall economic performance. How and to what extent the region performs economically compared to other regions? This was never answered authoritatively only until we happened to get a new empirical study conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
The National Economy
In
its January 2013 book entitled Food
and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges, the IFPRI provided
“…empirical evidence to shed light
on the complexities of agricultural and food policy in today’s Ethiopia,
highlight major policies and interventions of the past decade, and provide
insights into building resilience to natural disasters and food crises”
(http://www.ifpri.org/publication/food-and-agriculture-ethiopia).
According
to the IFPRI, the editors of the book, Paul Dorosh and Shahidur Rashid “tell the
story of Ethiopia’s political, economic, and agricultural
transformation”. The
overall conclusion of the book is that Ethiopia is seeing better economic
performances and that the agriculture development-led strategy is “sound”. “In
fact, since 2001 the per capita income in certain rural areas has risen by more
than 50 percent, and crop yields and availability have also increased. Higher
investments in roads and mobile phone technology have led to improved
infrastructure and thereby greater access to markets, commodities, services,
and information” (IFPRI website).
It is
interesting that Ethiopia is making developments in several key areas. This must
be duly acknowledged and commended. Praising good beginnings and criticizing
malfunctions should be the business of any reasonable and responsible citizen.
There is no doubt that infrastructure is developed and productivity is improved.
What is unfortunate is that the high cost of living (with double-digit
inflation) is neutralizing the changes brought about. Although per capita income
increases, purchasing power alarmingly deteriorates, putting households in a
near perfect gain-loss scenario. Of course, the degree of income distribution at
household and regional levels is also not even. The government and its
sympathizers and the opposition should not exclusively focus on the amount of
national income and rate of inflation, respectively. Both need to be considered
for a meaningful characterization of our national economy.
Tigray Economy
The
most important part of the book that caught the attention of media is, however,
the one related to the comparative economic performance of Tigray. Compared to
other regional governments, Tigray is performing pretty better in nearly all
indicators and measures including access to and utilization of fertilizer,
irrigation, technology, infrastructure, and crop production. The difference
between Tigray, Amhara, Oromoia, and Southern Ethiopia is, according to the
IFPRI ubiquitous and substantial.
The
important question to ask is not why Tigray grows faster and stronger but how it
does that. Meaning, given common macro-economic policy, how does Tigray
outperform other regional governments in infrastructure development and crop
production? It is well known that the weather and topography in Tigray are not
any better conducive for crop production- we have there many arid, rocky and
mountainous areas. In fact, one finds hectares and hectares of arable and
fertile land in the other regions. It is difficult to argue that the labor force
in Tigray is much more skilled and productive compared to in those other
regions. The only significant factor that should explain at least much of the
variation must be related to the degree of investment made. Tigray must have
enjoyed the highest resource pool over the last yesteryears. And this seems in
direct parlance with the popular cry that the region is the ruling party’s
favorite stop for its economic train.
This
is hard to refute. Some members of the top TPLF leadership have been talking to
what extent Tigray is progressing. The most recent account is one which came
from Azeb Mesfin. She eloquently talked of Meles’ vision and plan to turn Tigray
into a truly industrial zone in just few years. The opposition and other people
interpreted this as a mere political maneuvering made to create tensions between
the Tigray people and the other Ethiopians. To me, her talks just talked of the
truth.
Generally,
the fact that Tigray is found to be the most ‘prosperous’ region in Ethiopia has
serious ramifications. Seen from compassionate and moral grounds, it is good to
see that part of the country to make improvements, for it ‘hosted’ several wars
that involved Ethiopians and foreigners. Citizens from all parts of Ethiopia
participated in heroic wars but Tigray, in addition to its soldiers, suffered a
lot in terms of infrastructural damage and environmental and psychological
realms. If all the investments took into consideration this reality of Tigray,
it sounds justifiable. However, it would have been more edifying and blameless
had it been done in absolute clarity, transparency and based on national
consensus.
Implications
That
Tigray is economically leading the other regions means a lot. The IFPRI’s
finding could be used by all interested stakeholders as a solid base of evidence
in support of the structural inequality persisting in the country. The
difference between Tigray and the other regions is as psychological and moral as
it is economical. Meaning, it is morally wrong to grow one region faster than
others. The difference could also stimulate and sustain psychological uneasiness
between Tigryans and other Ethiopians. The already worrisome psychological
climate might get intensified. Moreover, Ethiopians might have hard time
discriminating between the ruling party and ordinary Tigryans. To the many, TPLF
might mean Tigryans and Tigryans might mean TPLF. This hitherto
hard-to-refute-and-accept perception might now look grounded. This situation in
turn might force innocent Tigryans to identify with TPLF. That in the end means
a protracted and undifferentiated struggle between TPLF/Tigryans and the rest of
Ethiopians and would unnecessarily complicate matters. All these psycho-moral
tensions might be considered barriers for future peace and cooperation between
Ethiopians.
What to do
Empirical
studies naturally appear credible and authentic. The comparative study reported
by the IFPRI is likely to be considered a yardstick to measure how regions in
Ethiopia perform economically. All stakeholders must see the case seriously to
avoid any unnecessary complications. The government, the opposition, the media,
Tigryans and the entire Ethiopian population must face the reality. The
government must accept the reality and demonstrate its readiness to treat all
regions fairly in the future. Bluffing and/or getting rough on this issue would
not do any good. The educated, regardless of their political affiliations, would
be influential in creating a common platform for all Ethiopians based on the
reality on the ground. Workshops, seminars, conferences and/or publications that
involve and consider the government, the opposition, Tigryans, and all other
people are crucial.
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